Solar panels at bargain prices, green certificates, energy communities, third-party payers... In Brussels, there are currently many incentives for photovoltaic installations. Alexandre de Beukelaer, head of the photovoltaic unit at EFP Brussels and director of Trust Elec, discusses the latest trends and explains how they work.
Last year was a record year for the Belgian photovoltaic market. With 4.4 million units installed, the number of solar panels put on the market in our country rose by 37% in 2023. This result follows an already unprecedented 2022.
The main reason for this surge is the collapse in prices, the result of a world market flooded by Chinese production. And this flood is set to continue. According to our colleagues at Alternatives Economiques, in 2023 China alone had a production capacity of 800 GW, while global demand for photovoltaic panels amounted to 450 GW. A hyper-competitive market, where European demand amounts to 56 GW, while producers on the continent produce just 11 GW of capacity and are struggling to survive.
And what is the state of the market in Brussels? Is now the right time to invest - or even reinvest - in solar energy? And what factors need to be taken into account? Alexandre de Beukelaer, head of the photovoltaic unit at the EFP Brussels training centre and founder of electrical specialist Trust Elec, provides the answers.
Is 2024 also set to be a record year in Belgium?
We don't have the figures yet, but probably not. I can see quite a few installers reducing their activity very sharply, or even disappearing. It has to be said that the end of 2023 was an exceptional period. The announcement of the end of the ‘backward running meters’ from 2024 in Wallonia boosted bargain purchases and encouraged customers to make the leap before 31 December. Inevitably, sales in 2024 then suffered from these expectations. By 2025, the market will probably have stabilised. In fact, even without green certificates or backward running meters, investment in Wallonia is still profitable after 7 or 9 years.
What's the Brussels market like?
The installers who work there have been less affected than in Wallonia. On the one hand, there are fewer of them because the sites are more complex, with very high town houses and difficult access. On the other hand, the green certificates, which are still in force, continue to have an impact. The same is true of energy communities, which enable homeowners to make even better use of the energy they produce (see text box).
Why are these Chinese panels present everywhere?
They've always been there, but what's changed is that prices are lower than ever. I've divided the purchase cost of my Chinese panels by three in three years! Today, it's true that China is experiencing overcapacity. But there's also a strategy behind it that aims to break up the global market so that, in the long term, it can dominate it even more. With their huge sites and their scale savings, producers have the means to do this. In fact, despite these very low prices, they seem to be breaking even. Their panels are sold at near-cost price, but not at a loss...
Are there any alternatives?
If we want there to be any left in the next few years, we have to buy European panels. They are more expensive, but they incorporate the externalities at their fair value, whereas, as we know, Chinese panels are manufactured under questionable social and environmental conditions. It's all a matter of resources and customer sensitivity. In any case, we are delighted to have recently completed a major installation of Belga Solar panels...
What about the quality?
The technical data sheets supplied by the leading Chinese manufacturers are validated by laboratories before they enter Europe. They indicate very good performance, even if it remains lower than that of American panels and some European ones. However, random tests carried out by installers show Chinese results well below those announced. So it's hard to say for sure. What is certain is that Chinese equipment is not covered by the same guarantees. In the event of failure, it will not be replaced.
How long does a panel last?
Today, manufacturers' warranties have increased from 10-12 years to 25, 30 or 40 years. Their rate of degradation is very low and, what's more, they are recycled very well. What will lead to replacement is not so much the end of life as the incredible evolution in performance, which will accelerate obsolescence. We've already doubled or tripled the power of first-generation panels. Who knows where we'll be in a few years' time, given that the companies involved are continuing to invest heavily in R&D.
What about the batteries that are increasingly being suggested for panel installations?
Just like those in cars, they are most often of Chinese origin and run on lithium. Lithium is highly toxic and flammable, and is extracted in the conditions we all know. Batteries prevent all the energy produced from being fed into the grid at the same time, which simplifies the task of the electricity manager. But they are at odds with the principle of a shared green energy transition... The profitability of certain models also remains to be proven. So I have mixed feelings. Here again, technological developments could change the situation. Salt water batteries have been announced for the next few years.
Making your installation profitable: how long does it take?
Every installation is different and there is no absolute answer to the question of the financial return on an installation. Especially as electricity prices change,’ Alexandre de Beukelaer points out. On average, in Brussels, green certificates reduce the amortisation period to around five years for a private home. In the case of a co-ownership incorporating an energy community (see text box), an installation of 80 panels can even generate a return in less than 4 years... ‘A company or business that consumes 100% of its production will value it in its accounts at the market price. This gives a payback period of 2 to 5 years,’ he adds.
When is it worth the effort?
Those who want to go solar but don't have the necessary funds will probably turn to Brusol. This third-party payer scheme assumes all the installation costs and is repaid via green certificates. Obviously, there's no question of making any money here other than by reducing your current electricity bill. But for those who want to turn their solar installation into a sound financial investment, what is the minimum size of installation you should aim for to ensure acceptable profitability? And given that some Brussels roofs can only accommodate a very small number of panels?
Securing the roof, installing the cables and the inverter, administrative formalities... Installation involves incompressible fixed costs which, according to Alexandre de Beukelaer, only make an installation worthwhile when there are 6 or even 8 panels. ‘Below that, you have to switch to micro-inverters, but their performance is low and production becomes expensive. It's not really worth it any more,’ he concludes.
Energy sharing: Brussels' good plan
Since April 2022, the Brussels legal framework has introduced energy communities. These bring together owners of photovoltaic panels and consumers. The system allows the former to increase their income from electricity feed-in and the latter to considerably reduce their daytime bills. To take part, all you have to do is create or locate a community near you, if there is one. If not, you can always turn to the NPO ‘Illuminons notre quartier’, which covers the whole of the Brussels-Capital Region. Consumers who do not already have one will also have to get a smart meter, installed free of charge by Sibelga. energysharing.brugel.brussels
Green certificates in two words
Installing photovoltaic panels means becoming a producer of green electricity. The Brussels Region then grants you 10-year ‘green certificates’. The purpose of these intangible documents is to recognise the CO2 savings produced by a new installation.
You can resell your certificates on the energy market to achieve a faster payback on your investment. Thanks to annual adjustments, both upwards and downwards, of the grant rate, the certificate system is calibrated to ensure a return on investment within seven years at the latest (hence the certificates).
The lowest price for a green certificate - which is also its current price - is €65. Having such a rate also means that candidates and those advising them can draw up investment plans that make sense,’ Alexandre de Beukelaer explains.